Nikita Makaed

Contact me: makaed.nikita@stern.nyu.edu

Short Expedia (EXPE): PT’26 $199.34- (Spot price: $270)

(1) Expedia’s B2B growth will continue to decline with a hardening comp set already in play, where competitors like Booking and Hopper are already taking Expedia’s own clients (Citi, RBC).

(2) B2C continues to lose to direct booking; hotels pay member 4.5-9.1% back plus status, where One Key only pays 1%. With Expedia cutting that program for the 2nd time in 14 months.

(3) Agentic checkout turns Expedia into booking handler that will trade at a fraction of today’s price; additionally Expedia has been losing LLM travel search demand.

(4) Airbnb’s hotel push attacks 80% of revenue for Expedia, every point of share Airbnb takes costs Expedia 3.5x more nights than Booking.
Memo & Model

Short AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): PT’$35 – (Spot price: $90)

(1) The market is currently overstating ASTS’ ability to monetize, overstating potential MAU growth + ability to maintain high monthly price.

(2) Management has been misleading about production costs, and their funding capacity; the company will be forced to raise money in FY’27 due to rising opex and high hardware and launch costs.

(3) Management has explicitly guided 45-60 satellites in orbit for this year, although always found to be overly optimistic, expert calls and channel checks show that the number will land on the lower 15-20 satellite range, further pushing back the timeline for monetization.
Memo & Model

Short Spotify (SPOT): PT’26 $370 – (Spot price: $520)

(1) Spotify’s recent Q1 price hike positions their subscription cost at a 15% premium to peers, with already Q1’26 premium adoption decelerating, our survey of US paid users implies a further ~50bps in monthly churn compared to street estimates.

(2) The Street is underwriting a “trust me” story with management’s ability to deliver 40% gross margins through Super Tier Adoption. As music becomes commoditized and mature markets saturate, we believe declining free to paid conversion will lead to higher margin compression than consensus.

(3) The long-term cash flows generated by the Super Pro-Tier are currently mispriced in the tape. At 17.5% of addressable premium users and our adoption rate of 13% by 2030, Spotify will de-rate by ~24%. We see the new tier as an AI “hail mary” to inflate the multiple through price hikes as opposed to underlying user growth.
Memo & Model

Long BYD Auto (BYDDY/2594): PT’26 $16.27 (Spot price: $12.20)

(1) The Street is falling victim to country-of-origin bias, pricing the American mentality onto markets that don’t share it. This has translated into meaningful mispricing and skewed R/R for BYD.

(2) Margin compression is cyclical, and the overseas mix shift, local factory buildout, and in-house battery cost declines drive blended GM expansion of 270-330+ bps above Street by FY28.

(3) Overseas growth is materially underappreciated. BYD’s cost structure lets them undercut every peer in price-sensitive markets that premium EV’s can’t reach. Overseas profitability is also the oxygen that lets them outlast the Chinese price war.
Memo & Model

Long Middleby (MIDD): PT $178.50 – (Spot price: $138)

(1) CFS is under-appreciated as a recurring revenue business, 54% of revenue from installed base with structural switching costs, $800M+ in pent-up replacement demand, and Middleby Advantage servicing model unlocking $150M+ EBITDA opportunity, yet trades at 9.1x as a cyclical.

(2) FP spin-off is a free call option, priced at ~zero inside the conglomerate despite 20% margins and 66% organic order growth, while peers GEA and JBT Marel trade at 13–17x; standalone re-rating to 12–14x adds $35–45/share.

(3) Activist-led capital allocation shift, Ed Garden (sole 13F holding, 7%+ stake) executing the Trian playbook: $710M buybacks in 2025, RK divested to 26North at $885M, FP spin Q2 2026, and compensation reformed to ROIC and organic growth.
Memo & Model

Long Parsons Corporation (PSN): PT’26 $73.85 – (Spot price: $50)

(1) AI-driven margin expansion on fixed-price contracts.

(2) Infrastructure segment reaching peak funding through IIJA disbursements.

(3) A DoS contract rolloff masks underlying double-digit growth across all segments.
Memo & Model

Short Canada Goose: PT’$4.93 – (Spot price: $12.49)

(1) Climate-driven mix shift away from heavyweight down structurally dilutes margins as CG moves into lower-ASP, more competitive lightweight categories.

(2) Declining store unit productivity and continued DTC expansion drive operating deleverage and ROIC compression.
Memo & Model

Long XPeng (XPEV):

(1) Global BEV Adoption remains in early growth with significant runway, which XPeng is positioned as disproportionately capture.

(2) XPeng’s technological moat in autonomous driving (XNGP) is exceptional, which continues to separate it from giant competitors like BYD & Li Auto.

(3) XPeng has achieved one of the highest gross margins in the industry, meanwhile maintaining the 2nd lowest pricing amongst competitors, while maintaining their technological moat.
Memo & Model